Link of The Day
FOMC Keeps Rates Flat at 5.30%
The Fed's latest release, "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement," explains, "Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks." It continues, "In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective." Finally, the FOMC writes, "In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments."
Weekly Money Fund Portfolio Holdings
Crane Data published its latest Weekly Money Fund Portfolio Holdings statistics Tuesday, which track a shifting subset of our monthly Portfolio Holdings collection. The most recent cut (with data as of April 26) includes Holdings information from 63 money funds (down 19 from a week ago), or $2.933 trillion (down from $3.463 trillion) of the $6.376 trillion in total money fund assets (or 46.0%) tracked by Crane Data. (Our Weekly MFPH are e-mail only and aren't available on the website. See our latest Monthly Money Fund Portfolio Holdings here and our April 10 News, "April Money Fund Portfolio Holdings: Repo Rises, Treasuries, TDs Fall.") Our latest Weekly MFPH Composition summary shows Government assets dominating the holdings list with Treasuries totaling $1.370 trillion (down from $1.523 trillion a week ago), or 46.7%; Repurchase Agreements (Repo) totaling $1.064 trillion (down from $1.278 trillion a week ago), or 36.3%, and Government Agency securities totaling $242.3 billion (down from $301.7 billion), or 8.3%. Commercial Paper (CP) totaled $87.9 billion (down from a week ago at $118.5 billion), or 3.0%. Certificates of Deposit (CDs) totaled $72.4 billion (down from $94.4 billion a week ago), or 2.5%. The Other category accounted for $63.4 billion or 2.2%, while VRDNs accounted for $32.3 billion, or 1.1%. The Ten Largest Issuers in our Weekly Holdings product include: the US Treasury with $1.370 trillion (46.7% of total holdings), Fixed Income Clearing Corp with $204.7B (7.0%), Federal Home Loan Bank with $190.1B (6.5%), the Federal Reserve Bank of New York with $134.9 billion (4.6%), BNP Paribas with $75.2B (2.6%), Citi with $71.7B (2.4%), JP Morgan with $71.4B (2.4%), RBC with $62.3B (2.1%), Federal Farm Credit Bank with $49.8B (1.7%) and Goldman Sachs with $43.9B (1.5%). The Ten Largest Funds tracked in our latest Weekly include: JPMorgan US Govt MM ($257.6B), Goldman Sachs FS Govt ($232.5B), JPMorgan 100% US Treas MMkt ($197.9B), Fidelity Inv MM: Govt Port ($197.6B), BlackRock Lq FedFund ($139.4B), Morgan Stanley Inst Liq Govt ($138.5B), Fidelity Inv MM: MM Port ($127.3B), State Street Inst US Govt ($123.2B), Allspring Govt MM ($114.1B) and Dreyfus Govt Cash Mgmt ($112.5B). (Let us know if you'd like to see our latest domestic U.S. and/or "offshore" Weekly Portfolio Holdings collection and summary.)
Payden Limited Maturity Fund Turns 30
A press release entitled, "Payden & Rygel Celebrates 30 Years of the Limited Maturity Fund (PYLMX) Amidst Four Decades of Investment Excellence" states, "Payden & Rygel is proud to announce the 30-year anniversary of its Limited Maturity Fund (PYLMX). This milestone coincides with the firm's celebration of four decades as a global investment adviser. Over the years, Payden & Rygel has cemented its reputation as a leader in short-duration strategies and one of the largest privately-owned active managers of fixed income and equity portfolios. The short duration strategy team has worked together for 15 years and currently oversees $70 billion in assets across mutual fund vehicles and highly customizable separately managed accounts." It quotes Mary Beth Syal, Managing Director, Senior Portfolio Manager at Payden & Rygel, "Employing a strategic blend of top-down macroeconomic analysis and bottom-up security selection, the team aims to capture macro themes and opportunities, ensuring adaptability to evolving market conditions. Our focus has enabled us access to liquidity during times of market distress, and our management team's 20+ years of industry experience has been instrumental in pinpointing market inefficiencies to enhance risk-adjusted performance." The release adds, "In light of the latest round of money market fund reforms, PYLMX and Payden's tailored short duration solutions present a compelling opportunity for investors seeking a less restrictive, liquidity-focused fund. As the industry sees a shift with the largest prime institutional money funds converting to government money funds to avoid liquidity fees, the Limited Maturity Fund offers an attractive alternative to the money fund complex for institutions and investors looking for liquidity and minimal total return volatility."
WSJ: Regulators Seize Another Bank
The Wall Street Journal writes, "Regulators Seize Troubled Philadelphia Bank, Republic First." The piece states, "Regulators seized the troubled Philadelphia bank Republic First Bancorp and sold it to fellow regional lender Fulton Financial, the fourth high-profile bank failure since last spring. The bank was closed by the Pennsylvania state regulator on Friday and sold after an auction run by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.... Republic First faced some of the same problems as the three regional banks that failed last year: paper losses on bonds that lost value as interest rates rose, and high proportions of uninsured deposits that can quickly flee." It tells us, "Republic First is much smaller than Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and the similarly named First Republic, which each had between roughly $100 billion and $200 billion in assets. Since there is a buyer, the government won't be left with the decision over whether to backstop deposits over the FDIC limit of $250,000, as it did with SVB and Signature. The long, drawn-out failure also gave depositors more time to prepare, as compared with the rapid collapses of last year. The FDIC said it expected the failure, even with the deal, to cost its insurance fund about $667 million. The nation's biggest banks had taken billions of dollars in charges to rebuild the insurance fund for last year’s failures." The Journal adds, "A relatively orderly deal should prevent the failure from sparking a wider crisis in confidence. But regional banks are still on shaky ground. Two years of higher rates have forced them to pay more interest on deposits, which has increasingly eaten into profits.... A larger regional bank, New York Community Bancorp, fanned concerns about commercial real estate earlier this year after it revealed problems in its multifamily loan book.... NYCB got a rescue infusion from investors in March. Republic First had for months struggled to stay afloat. Around half of its deposits were uninsured at the end of 2023, according to FDIC data."
Fed Posts Financial Stability Report
The Federal Reserve Board published a "Financial Stability Report" recently, which comments on "Funding Risks," "Vulnerabilities from funding risks remained notable, reflecting challenges at some banks and structural vulnerabilities in other sectors engaged in liquidity transformation. The banking industry maintained a high level of liquidity since the October report. Funding risks for most banks remained low, and large banks that are subject to the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) continued to maintain ample levels of high-quality liquid assets (HQLA). Deposit outflows stabilized over the second half of last year following the March 2023 banking-sector stresses and turned into inflows by the fourth quarter of 2023. Nevertheless, some banks continued to face funding challenges, including higher costs for funding and relatively high reliance on uninsured deposits. The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) ceased extending new loans on March 11, 2024." They write, "Prime MMFs and similar cash-management vehicles remained a prominent source of vulnerability given their susceptibility to runs and the significant role they play in short-term funding markets. In addition, some cash-management vehicles, including retail prime MMFs, government MMFs, and short-term investment funds, maintained stable net asset values (NAVs) but may face difficulties doing so because they hold assets in their portfolios whose valuations are vulnerable to sharp movements in interest rates." The report adds, "Stablecoins are also prone to run risks like those of MMFs and other cash-management vehicles. However, the combined market capitalization of all stablecoins (roughly $150 billion currently) remained small relative to the broader funding markets, and stablecoins are not widely used as cash-management vehicles." Finally, it says, "Some open-end bond mutual funds remained susceptible to large redemptions because they must allow shareholders to redeem every day even though the funds hold assets that can face losses and become illiquid amid stress. Life insurers continued to face funding risk owing to their reliance on a higher-than-average share of nontraditional liabilities in combination with an increasing share of illiquid and risky assets on their balance sheets. Overall, estimated runnable money-like financial liabilities grew 8.8 percent to $21.3 trillion (75 percent of nominal GDP) over the past year, as a decline in uninsured deposits was more than offset by an increase in assets under management at MMFs. As a share of GDP, runnable liabilities remained above their historical median."
SEC's New (Non-MMF) Fund Summary
A press release titled, "SEC Staff Publishes New Registered Fund Statistics Report," tells us, "The staff of the Securities and Exchange Commission ... published a new report of Registered Fund Statistics, which is based on aggregated data reported by SEC-registered funds on Form N-PORT. The new report, which will be updated on a quarterly basis, is designed to provide the public with a regular and detailed picture of the registered funds industry -- with its more than 12,000 funds and more than $26 trillion in total net assets under management. The report provides key industry statistics and shows trends over time, including information and trends related to portfolio holdings, flows and returns, interest rate risk, and other exposures across U.S. mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, closed-end funds, and other registered funds." SEC Chair Gary Gensler comments, "Providing data to the public is one of the more consequential things a government agency does.... This new report will give the public a view into the registered fund industry. Investors, issuers, economists, academics, and the public at large benefit from such regularly published economic data." The release continues, "Registered Fund Statistics contains the first aggregated report that reflects both the public and non-public information filed on Form N-PORT, and most of the aggregated data in the more than 70 separate tables of the report is being made public for the first time. Also, the public may download the statistics reported in Registered Fund Statistics in a structured format, which will provide the historical statistical series of information with each publication of the report." Chief Economist Jessica Wachter <p:>`_says, "`The publication of this data will provide valuable information to a wide range of users. Data that is accessible and useable by the public provides greater transparency into our capital markets." "This report provides the public an unprecedented view of the composition and activities of registered funds," adds Tim Husson, head of the Division of Investment Management's Analytics Office. "We welcome feedback on the report, which we believe will assist the public dialogue on issues pertaining to the asset management industry." The release also states, "The Division of Investment Management has primary responsibility for administering the Investment Company Act of 1940 and Investment Advisers Act of 1940, including oversight of investment companies, such as mutual funds, money market funds, and ETFs, and for investment advisers. The Division's Analytics Office provides the Division and the SEC with practical reviews and actionable analyses of the asset management industry. The report is available on the SEC's website here." (Note: The new report doesn't include money market funds. For this summary, see their "Money Msrket Mutual Fund Statistics" report.)
Weekly Money Fund Portfolio Holdings
Crane Data published its latest Weekly Money Fund Portfolio Holdings statistics Tuesday, which track a shifting subset of our monthly Portfolio Holdings collection. The most recent cut (with data as of April 19) includes Holdings information from 82 money funds (up 12 from a week ago), or $3.463 trillion (up from $3.129 trillion) of the $6.336 trillion in total money fund assets (or 54.7%) tracked by Crane Data. (Our Weekly MFPH are e-mail only and aren't available on the website. See our latest Monthly Money Fund Portfolio Holdings here and our April 10 News, "April Money Fund Portfolio Holdings: Repo Rises, Treasuries, TDs Fall.") Our latest Weekly MFPH Composition summary shows Government assets dominating the holdings list with Treasuries totaling $1.523 trillion (up from $1.450 trillion a week ago), or 44.0%; Repurchase Agreements (Repo) totaling $1.278 trillion (up from $1.146 trillion a week ago), or 36.9%, and Government Agency securities totaling $301.7 billion (up from $272.8 billion), or 8.7%. Commercial Paper (CP) totaled $118.5 billion (up from a week ago at $91.3 billion), or 3.4%. Certificates of Deposit (CDs) totaled $94.4 billion (up from $70.3 billion a week ago), or 2.7%. The Other category accounted for $103.8 billion or 3.0%, while VRDNs accounted for $43.7 billion, or 1.3%. The Ten Largest Issuers in our Weekly Holdings product include: the US Treasury with $1.523 trillion (44.0% of total holdings), Fixed Income Clearing Corp with $298.7B (8.6%), Federal Home Loan Bank with $228.0B (6.6%), the Federal Reserve Bank of New York with $110.4 billion (3.2%), Citi with $91.9B (2.7%), RBC with $85.8B (2.5%), BNP Paribas with $82.9B (2.4%), JP Morgan with $80.6B (2.3%), Federal Farm Credit Bank with $70.3B (2.0%) and Bank of America with $59.2B (1.7%). The Ten Largest Funds tracked in our latest Weekly include: JPMorgan US Govt MM ($252.4B), Goldman Sachs FS Govt ($222.7B), Fidelity Inv MM: Govt Port ($194.8B), JPMorgan 100% US Treas MMkt ($194.4B), Federated Hermes Govt ObI ($148.8B), BlackRock Lq FedFund ($142.4B), Morgan Stanley Inst Liq Govt ($140.3B), State Street Inst US Govt ($134.4B), Fidelity Inv MM: MM Port ($128.0B) and Allspring Govt MM ($113.3B). (Let us know if you'd like to see our latest domestic U.S. and/or "offshore" Weekly Portfolio Holdings collection and summary.)
Crane 100 Index Remains at 5.12%
Money fund yields were unchanged at 5.12% on average (as measured by our Crane 100 Money Fund Index) in the week ended April 19, after inching lower the week prior. Our Crane 100 is an average of 7-day yields for the 100 largest taxable money funds. Yields were 5.14% on 3/31 and 2/29/24, 5.17% on 1/31/24, 5.20% on 12/31/23, 4.94% on 6/30/23, 4.61% on 3/31/23 and 4.05% on 12/31/22. The vast majority of money market fund assets now yield 5.0% or higher. Assets of money market funds fell by $71.8 billion last week to $6.336 trillion according to Crane Data's Money Fund Intelligence Daily. Weighted average maturities were unchanged last week. The broader Crane Money Fund Average, which includes all taxable funds tracked by Crane Data (currently 712), shows a 7-day yield of 5.03%, up 1 bp in the week through Friday. Prime Inst MFs were unchanged at 5.22% in the latest week. Government Inst MFs were unchanged at 5.10%. Treasury Inst MFs were up 1 bp at 5.06%. Treasury Retail MFs currently yield 4.84%, Government Retail MFs yield 4.82%, and Prime Retail MFs yield 5.04%, Tax-exempt MF 7-day yields were up 31 bps at 3.53%. According to Monday's Money Fund Intelligence Daily, with data as of Friday (4/19), 7 money funds (out of 833 total) yield under 3.0% with $60 million in assets, or 0.0%; 115 funds yield between 3.00% and 3.99% ($124.4 billion, or 2.0%), 256 funds yield between 4.0% and 4.99% ($1.328 trillion, or 21.0%) and 455 funds now yield 5.0% or more ($4.883 trillion, or 77.1%). Our Brokerage Sweep Intelligence Index, an average of FDIC-insured cash options from major brokerages, was unchanged at 0.61%. The latest Brokerage Sweep Intelligence, with data as of April 19, shows that there were no changes over the past week. Three of the 11 major brokerages tracked by our BSI still offer rates of 0.01% for balances of $100K (and lower tiers). These include: E*Trade, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley.
Bloomberg: 0.01% Yields a Dilemma
Bloomberg published the brief, "Americans Sick of 0.01% Yields Create New Dilemma on Wall Street." It explains, "Across JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s broad suite of consumer accounts, one number is just about everywhere: 0.01%. That's the interest rate on Chase Sapphire, Chase Premier Plus and Chase Private Client checking accounts, regardless if someone deposits $5 or $500,000. The same is true for Chase savings accounts, according to a fact sheet as of April 12. Those afforded 'relationship rates' get a whopping ... 0.02%. On that same day, JPMorgan reported that its net interest income -- the difference between what it earned on loans versus what it paid on deposits -- fell in the first quarter from the last three months of 2023, the first sequential drop in 11 periods. Shares tumbled by the most since June 2020." The article continues, "The largest US bank was hardly alone: Wells Fargo & Co. also reported NII that missed analysts' estimates. Both banks cited increased pressure to pay out more for deposits, which offset the benefit of higher interest rates earned on loans. It all points to a trend that has been bubbling beneath the surface since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates, but has only more recently been reaching Wall Street's bottom line: Americans are getting wise with their cash. Perhaps nowhere is this more stark than in certificates of deposit.... US commercial banks held $2.26 trillion of large CDs (defined as $100,000 or more) on their books as of the end of 2023, Fed data show. That was up $615 billion from a year earlier, the sharpest annual increase on record." It adds, "Wells Fargo said last week that its non-interest-paying deposits slumped 18% from a year earlier, while those that do pay interest climbed.... At JPMorgan, CFO Jeremy Barnum said migration of deposits from checking and savings to CDs is the 'dominant trend'.... Another option for Americans is to eschew banks altogether. Some money market funds, which don't have the same lockup provisions as CDs, are offering yields of about 5%. The amount of cash in these vehicles soared by more than $1 trillion in 2023, the biggest jump ever, according to Investment Company Institute data."
French, Italian, Spanish on MMFs
A press release entitled, "Austrian, French, Italian and Spanish financial market authorities give their key priorities for a macro-prudential approach to asset management" tells us, "As the European Commission prepares to launch its consultation on the macro-prudential treatment of risk in asset management, four major European market authorities, the Austrian Finanzmarktaufsicht (FMA), Italian Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB), Spanish Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV) and French Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF), have set out their views on the priorities in the debate on a macro-prudential approach to asset management. The risks stemming from non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) have been subject to scrutiny from regulators worldwide over the past years, especially as its share in the global financial system has been increasing since. In addition, concerns have been raised about potential significant negative effects that shocks, either spreading through or originating from NBFI, may have on the real economy. These debates are important and legitimate." It explains, "When designing regulations to address asset management risks, its specific features should be considered. The asset management ecosystem is different from that of banks and as diverse as the vulnerabilities evidenced so far. Therefore, the nature of the risks that regulators aim to address needs to be precisely defined: regulators should target as a matter of priority those features of asset management generating excessive price volatility and liquidity stress. Capital requirements and liquidity buffers are not the best suited solutions to mitigate those risks in terms of financial stability. With respect to the above considerations, and focusing on the asset management industry the Austrian, French, Italian and Spanish authorities have identified five priorities that stand out." The release adds, "The first three relate to short- and medium-term measures while the others should be explored in the longer term: Ensure a wide availability and greater use of liquidity management tools (LMTs) in all kinds of open-ended funds (OEFs): the recent Alternative Investment Fund Manager Directive review will allow for a significant progress in this adoption of LMTs, although level two measures are still in the making; Ban amortised cost accounting for Money Market Funds: amortised cost accounting is intrinsically detrimental to financial stability, amounts to making false claims to investors, making them believe that they enjoy a stable net asset value (NAV), and generates incentives for first movers; System-wide stress tests should also be envisaged to better understand the vulnerabilities of each asset management group and its interconnections with other participants in the financial system; Introduce a truly consolidated supervisory approach for large cross-border asset management groups: as their teams and funds are currently supervised by different NCAs in different countries, creating a supervisory college for these groups would bring strong benefits both in times of stress and in normal market conditions; Create an integrated data hub shared by market supervisors and central banks, serving their respective needs, both for day-to-day supervision and stress-testing exercises.... The AMF is an independent public authority responsible for ensuring that savings invested in financial products are protected and that investors are provided with adequate information. The AMF also supervises the orderly operations of markets."
WSJ Quotes Powell: Maybe No Cuts
The Wall Street Journal writes, "Powell Dials Back Expectations on Rate Cuts." The article tells us, "Firm inflation during the first quarter has called into question whether the Federal Reserve will be able to lower interest rates this year without signs of an unexpected economic slowdown, Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday. His remarks indicated a clear shift in the Fed's outlook following a third consecutive month of stronger-than-anticipated inflation readings, which derailed hopes that the central bank might be able to deliver pre-emptive rate cuts this summer. Officials had previously said they were looking for greater confidence that inflation was returning to their target and were optimistic another month or two of data might meet that standard." They quote Powell during a Q&A in Washington, "The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence." The piece continues, "The remarks were his first public comments since an inflation report last week sent stocks sliding as investors recalibrated their rate-cut expectations.... Powell indicated Tuesday the Fed wasn't considering rate increases, either. Instead, Powell said officials would leave rates at their current level 'as long as needed' if inflation proved more stubborn. He also said the Fed would be prepared to cut rates if the economy was slowing sharply. Officials raised rates last summer to a 23-year high and have held them there since July." Powell adds, "We think policy is well positioned to handle the risks that we face.... Right now, given the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation so far, it's appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work."
Kiplinger's Warns on High Rates
Kiplinger's writes, "Why You Shouldn't Let High Interest Rates Seduce You," which says, "[N]early half of all Americans (48%) said they are keeping more money than they should in cash because they're worried about a recession, according to the 2024 Q1 Quarterly Market Perceptions Study from Allianz Life Insurance Company of North America. More than half of Americans (57%) said they are keeping more money in a high-yield savings account (HYSA) or money market funds because of interest rates. Millennials, in particular, said they are holding more money in these accounts. While 62% of Millennials said they are keeping more money in high-yield savings accounts or money market funds because of rising interest rates, 50% of Gen Xers and 54% of Boomers said the same." The article tells us, "The allure of high interest rates can make it feel like holding cash in an HYSA is a wise financial move. Yes, you need to have cash for emergencies and unexpected expenses like car repairs, medical bills and other needs. You don't want to take on debt in order to cover those bills. So, your emergency fund should be kept in cash or another liquid asset. Beyond that, you need to keep your money for long-term savings working for you -- invested in the market. While some investments can be volatile in the short term, investments typically increase in value in the end." Kiplinger's adds, "While interest rates are high now, they may go back down. Moreover, we don't know when or by how much. So, for long-term growth, that HYSA may not cut it. Keeping money in cash could cause you to lose out in the end."
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